Heading into the fourth quarterfinal of the World Cup, there can be no doubt as to which team is favourite. Sri Lanka have always been extremely difficult to beat at home, and for an England side that scraped through to the last eight by the skin of its teeth, the magnitude of the challenge at hand cannot be underestimated.
That the match is being played at the R Premadasa Stadium will also give a psychological advantage to the home side, for whom this has been a virtual fortress. Of the 81 matches they have played here, Sri Lanka have won 49 and lost just 26.
The match pitch is slightly darker in colour than its neighbouring strips, though it is expected to dry out. The only threat to this match comes from the weather forecast, which lists possible thunderstorms on Saturday.
As far as strategy is concerned, spin is expected to be the dominant force. The ground has had a reputation for being heavily loaded in favour of the side batting first in day- night matches, with only 24 wins out of 77 for the chasing team. Sri Lanka have been boosted by the news that Muttiah Muralitharan has shaken off the hamstring injury sustained during the match against New Zealand last week, and will lead the attack.
Murali, the highest wicket- taker at the venue, is expected to be joined in the XI by Ajantha Mendis, with skipper Kumar Sangakkara hinting that left- armer Rangana Herath, may also be included. However, with positions five, six and seven already struggling for runs and a good back- up spinner in firebrand opener Tillakaratne Dilshan available to them, they might not take that risk.
England, on the other hand, will have no doubt been affected by the sudden departure of leftarm spinner Michael Yardy, owing to depression. In addition to being a psychological blow, the fact that Yardy turns the ball the opposite way to their two off- spinners Graeme Swann and James Tredwell could have been handy for Andrew Strauss.
The experience of James Anderson may also be preferred over Chris Tremlett. Given England’s penchant for producing close games in the tournament so far, a lot could depend on the toss and the performance of England’s bowlers early on against the mighty Sri Lankan top order.
England are likely to abandon the Matt Prior experiment at the top of the order, with Ian Bell the favourite to join Strauss in opening the batting.
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